More than a few political analysts believe that the determining force of the 2008 presidential election will come from the state of Ohio. One of only three 20+ Electoral Vote states that supported President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, the Buckeye State seems to be the most likely big state to switch sides this year.
For the past few weeks, polls have shown small but consistent Barack Obama leads in this most critical of swing domains. The new Rasmussen Reports survey, however, shows a much different result. Based upon their July 21st survey of 500 likely voters, John McCain has pulled into a 46-40% lead. That’s the good news for the Arizona Senator. The bad news is he appears to be falling back in Florida. Rasmussen’s new poll there, taken July 22nd of another set of 500 likely voters, shows Obama taking the thinnest of leads, 46-45%.
The fact that a sampling universe of only 500 people is used for all of the Rasmussen polls could explain their sometimes large monthly swings. Most pollsters use larger samples for states the size of Ohio and Florida, so the results of these particular surveys can be discounted somewhat.
The main conclusion that we can draw from this data, particularly when compared with past surveys, is that Florida and Ohio are close and each man is very much alive in both places. Newsweek Magazine and Rasmussen Reports just released polls that show the presidential race evolving into a dead heat.
The Rasmussen three-day track (1,000 interviews per night for three nights) indicates that John McCain has pulled into a statistical tie with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 44-42%; this, after being deadlocked at 43% during the previous two days. Newsweek shows a similar 44-41% Obama-McCain split in its July national survey (1,209 voters sampled; July 9-10).
The Newsweek result represents a huge swing for McCain. The publication’s June poll had the Arizona Senator trailing 51-36%. Rasmussen has consistently pegged the race as being closer than Newsweek but, until now, Obama enjoyed a clear advantage.
The all-important state count, however, still favors Obama. According to the Rasmussen data, Obama leads in states with a cumulative Electoral Vote count of 210, versus McCain’s projected 171. This means that 157 Electoral Votes are still up for grabs. With “leaners”, Rasmussen projects that Obama would extend his margin to 293 Electoral Votes (270 are needed to win), and McCain would claim 227. But, these numbers could easily change over the next three months.
The traditional summertime Democratic advantage already seems to be dissipating, meaning that we are probably headed to yet another razor-thin presidential result.The Associated Press and Yahoo, Inc. conducted a national Internet-based poll of 1,759 adults over June 13-23 and just released the results. The survey, conducted by the Knowledge Networks firm, asked one simple open-ended question of those participating: how would you describe Barack Obama and John McCain? Some of the responses were predictable, while others were rather surprising.
As one might have guessed, the number one response (20% of respondents) describing Obama associated him with “change” and being an outsider. McCain’s age was the number one factor (19%) on his unfavorable list.
On the negative end, 13% of those polled said Obama lacked experience and a higher-than-expected 9% called him “dishonest.” For McCain, 7% tied him to President George W. Bush, and an additional 7% called him an “insider politician.”
Positively, 8% said Obama was “inspiring” and 4% called him intelligent. On the plus side for the McCain, 17% cited either the Arizona Senator’s military service, his overall record of public service, or qualifications to be president as positive attributes. An additional 12% said McCain was either “strong” or “honest.”
What do you think?
The liberal “netroots” (i.e., blogging) community is touting a new Rasmussen Reports poll that shows John McCain polling at under 50% in his home state of Arizona. As with all Rasmussen surveys, a sample size of 500 likely voters is used regardless of the size of the underlying population base. Such small sampling universes—in this case, for a state of 6.2 million people—can lead to inconsistent results.
The poll, taken June 25th, shows McCain leading Barack Obama 49-40%. Although the nine-point margin was beyond the error factor, but considering that McCain has been in elective office here for 26 consecutive years, it is not an overwhelming spread.
The ballot test numbers make even less sense when comparing the candidates’ favorability scores. Sixty percent of those questioned record a favorable impression of McCain versus 35% who see him unfavorably. Conversely, 49% of the sampling universe has a negative view of Obama, contrasting with just 47% who view him positively. The fact that the same poll shows the Republican with a +25 on the favorable scale to the Democrat’s -2 (which then translates into only a nine-point McCain lead), suggests the poll has reliability problems.
Throughout the primary season, national polling firms were often in conflict with each other, and no one company established itself as being consistently accurate. So far little has changed in the general election as four polls conducted within the last seven days indicate.
One survey, conducted for Newsweek Magazine (June 18-19) pegs Barack Obama with a large 51-36% national lead over John McCain. The Los Angeles Times found similar results in their poll conducted during the period of June 19-23; Obama leading 48-33%. Both of these surveys showed much larger Democratic margins than have been previously reported. This week, new data came to the forefront suggesting the race has again closed. The Gallup organization reveals a dead heat, with both Obama and McCain registering 45% in a national poll taken June 22-24. Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports’ daily track virtually confirmed Gallup, placing McCain just four points behind Obama (49-45%) with each having identical 55:43% favorable to unfavorable approval ratios.
Expect this type of disparate data to continue all the way through October. The inconsistency of the numbers helps us remember that the only true poll is the one taken on Election Day.
Last week, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama made official what many political observers had been predicting for months. Despite earlier claims that he would participate in the federal funding system, Obama became the first candidate since the presidential public financing law was enacted in 1976 to decline the federal dollars for the general election.
It’s simple to understand why Obama is taking this action. He believes that his campaign will raise substantially more money than the $84 million in taxpayer financing that would be presented to him upon becoming the official nominee. Exceeding the amount looks like a pretty good bet, since the Illinois Senator has already raised a record $295 million for the campaign. Last month, however, the Obama campaign had its slowest fundraising month of the year taking in only $22 million—the same amount presumptive GOP nominee John McCain secured. Obama reported having $43 million in the bank at the end of last month, but only $10 million of that total can be used in the general election. McCain has $31.6 million cash on hand, but will be limited to spending the $84 million in the general election after he becomes the official Republican nominee on September 4th.
Even without the government money, Obama will have substantially more than $84 million to spend in September and October. Aside from campaign funds, predicted to be over $350 million, outside 527 organizations and the Democratic Party structure will be on hand to help. Among the ten largest 527 organizations active in the 2008 election cycle—Democratic-leaning operations have raised $55 million, compared to $25 million for GOP-leaning groups. The total Democratic Party structure currently has $89.7 million in the bank, compared to $81.7 million for the Republicans, though the Republican National Committee—which will largely concentrate on the presidential race—has a cash-on-hand advantage of $53 million to just $4 million for the Democratic National Committee.
Rasmussen Reports recently finished testing voters’ attitudes toward some of the personal attributes and ideals of the two presidential finalists.
As to whether Barack Obama is too inexperienced to become the nation’s chief executive, 41% of voters agree with that statement versus 47% who do not. Turning to John McCain’s age (he will be the oldest President to be inaugurated for an initial term), 30% agree and 64% disagree that his longevity will be a factor in how he performs in office. Not surprisingly, an overwhelming number of the senior citizens polled felt McCain’s age should not disqualify him from the Presidency, and by a similar 2:1 margin, younger voters did not see Obama’s relative lack of political and administrative experience to be a problem.
Turning to ideology, 52% of those sampled believe that McCain’s policies will be a continuation of those promoted by George W. Bush, while 32% feels he will offer a different agenda. By a margin of 49-25%, the polling universe believes that Obama will promote liberal, “big government” solutions to the nation’s problems.
In terms of choosing a running mate, only 18% of those sampled believe that McCain selecting Independent Senator and former Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Joe Lieberman would be a good idea, and only 13% agree with the suggestion that the Arizona Senator should take a minority or a female candidate.Sen. Barack Obama claimed victory last night. His win in the Montana primary and the continuing number of superdelegates pledging their support allowed Obama to exceed the adjusted magic number of 2,118 committed votes necessary to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Sen. Hillary Clinton, while she was easily and rather ironically winning the South Dakota primary, congratulated Obama, his campaign team, and supporters for their achievement. She stopped short, however, of officially dropping out of the race. Regardless of her actions, however, it is likely that the general election has officially begun.While reports circulate that Sen. Hillary Clinton will suspend her campaign after the Montana and South Dakota results are tabulated during a speech from New York City tomorrow night, new American Research Group polls reveal some surprising numbers.
The surveys, conducted from May 31 to June 1, show Clinton winning big in South Dakota and trailing slightly in Montana. Though neither state has enough delegates to change the overall voting pattern to her favor, it is interesting that the former First Lady’s biggest victories (Puerto Rico 68%; Kentucky 72%; and West Virginia 67%, and now possibly South Dakota) are coming after it became clear that Sen. Barack Obama would soon clinch the Democratic nomination.
Realistically, Clinton’s performance in the final primaries is significant, but falls into the “too little, too late” category. New questions will now ask whether she will have a place on the ticket as Vice-President; be available to pick up the pieces of a shattered party if Obama self-destructs before the convention; and whether she will run again four years from now if Republican nominee John McCain is elected. The official end of the primaries merely marks a new political beginning.
Despite being on the verge of mathematical elimination in her quest for the Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Clinton racked up a huge win in Puerto Rico over the weekend. The former First Lady captured 68% of the vote on the island commonwealth, but the turnout was way short of topping what she hoped would be 2,000,000 voters. Less than 400,000 Puerto Ricans participated on June 1st. The result now ensures that Illinois Senator Barack Obama will win the national popular vote among Democrats. He will also lead in pledged and superdelegates when the primaries end tomorrow night.
The Democratic campaign now turns to the final two events, in Montana and South Dakota. With an intra-party settlement being reached on the admission of sanctioned Michigan and Florida to the Democratic National Convention – an agreement that Clinton reserves the right to challenge (the Michigan allocation, for example, only gives Clinton a 69-59 advantage in delegates despite Obama not being on the primary ballot) – Obama appears to be just 49 committed votes short of the new total of 2,118 delegates to officially claim the nomination. Thirty-one pledged delegates will be decided on Tuesday night – 16 from Montana; 15 in South Dakota – and approximately 200 superdelegates remain uncommitted. If Obama can obligate 55% of the pledged delegates tomorrow, which is likely, he would need only 32 more superdelegates, or just 16% of the uncommitted free agents to clinch final victory.
This weekend, former Georgia Republican Rep. Bob Barr officially became the Libertarian Party nominee for President. Barr joins Ralph Nader (Independent Party), and Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party) as third party presidential contenders in the general election. The Green Party, with four people running for the top spot on their national ticket, including former Rep. Cynthia McKinney also of Georgia, has yet to officially nominate a candidate.
Of all the small party nominations, the Greens and Libertarians are the most important because they have the ability to qualify for the ballot in virtually every state. Barr’s presence could mean trouble for GOP nominee John McCain in places that tend to vote conservative but are known to have an independent streak; states like Alaska, Montana, and even Nevada – where the margin between the two major party candidates is expected to be razor-thin. The Greens have the potential of draining votes away from Barack Obama in environmentally conscious independent states such as Connecticut, Maine, and Vermont.
Rarely do minor party presidential candidates make a significant difference. In a tight election, however, it is conceivable that Libertarian and Green Party votes could change the outcome in a close state or two, which, in 2008, could mean the difference between winning and losing the Presidency.
Sen. Barack Obama’s victory in the Oregon primary last night all but mathematically ends the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. Despite the fact that Sen. Hillary Clinton will continue her campaign after yesterday’s impressive win in the Kentucky primary, expect more superdelegates to soon announce for Obama in the coming weeks. Obama may be able to officially eliminate the former First Lady even before the final Montana and South Dakota primaries commence on June 3rd. Going into Oregon and Kentucky, Obama was just 109 votes from reaching the magic 2,026 number in committed delegates necessary to clinch total victory. Yesterday’s results should leave him within 63 votes of that apex. With more than 200 superdelegates alone still uncommitted, Obama should have little trouble reaching presumptive nominee status soon.
The Illinois Senator took 58% of the vote in Oregon, meaning he won approximately 30 committed delegates. Clinton scored a 65-30% win in Kentucky, but it is apparently too little, too late. Her only hope is to claim enough delegates to get inside the range where adding the sanctioned states of Michigan and Florida actually changes the outcome. With only three primaries remaining (Puerto Rico votes June 1st, in addition to Montana and South Dakota), she now has little chance of gaining the 78 committed delegate votes needed to make the penalized states count.
Turning to a general election forecast of an Obama-John McCain race, based upon the latest available public polls from each of the 50 states, McCain has a slight 249-242 Electoral Vote lead, with three places, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin (47 aggregate Electoral Votes) all rated as dead heats. Comparing the data to the 2004 presidential election map, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico would switch from Republican to Democrat, while New Hampshire returns to the GOP column after voting for John Kerry four years ago. It takes 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency. Under this scenario, should Ohio vote McCain and Michigan and Wisconsin choose Obama, the election would end in a 269-269 tie. A presumed Democratic House of Representatives would then serve as the tie-breaker (each state casting one vote) and elect Obama as the 44th President.
Sen. Hillary Clinton’s political back is still up against the wall, despite her 67% victory in West Virginia last week and a similar percentage forecast for her today in Kentucky. With Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana still remaining on the Democratic primary schedule, Clinton must claim a minimum of 59% of the remaining pledged delegates to stay viable. Therefore, the May 20th Oregon primary now becomes critical for her, and an upset win there is a virtual necessity. Realistically, she must run the table between now and June 3rd to stay in the game. Today, she sits 77 delegates behind Barack Obama, even when adding sanctioned Michigan and Florida’s full compliment of delegates to the overall total. The former First Lady’s only chance to continue her fight for the nomination is to finish the primary schedule in a position where adding Michigan and Florida changes the present outcome.
Obama has been projected to win the Oregon primary for the last several months. The most current poll, however, shows his lead beginning to evaporate. The American Research Group surveyed 600 likely Oregon Democratic voters during May 14-15 and found that Clinton has pulled to within 50-45%. In Kentucky, ARG shows Clinton with a commanding 65-29% advantage over the same two day period last week.
Though Obama continues to convert superdelegates daily, his popular support among Democratic voters in states holding the final primaries seems to be falling precipitously, again suggesting yet another odd twist and turn in this most unique of presidential campaigns.
Sen. Hillary Clinton scored a resounding victory in West Virginia Tuesday night over Sen. Barack Obama. Clinton was favored two-to-one in what was one of the most lopsided victories of the Democratic primary season. Despite Clinton’s easy win, however, both camps' pledged delegate totals were barely affected and the momentum of the overall contest remained unchanged.
With only 28 pledged delegates at stake, Clinton received 20 and Obama received eight, bringing their respective totals to 1,717 and 1,883.5, according to the Associated Press. More significant to the outcome of the race, in the past week, 27 of the party’s coveted superdelegates have gone for Obama, while Clinton has only managed to attract one and a half (members of a group called Democrats Abroad are each allocated a half superdelegate). Couple that with John Edwards' endorsement of Obama yesterday and it is safe to say that the Clinton campaign is at the beginning of the end.
However, for Barack Obama the results in West Virginia reinforce the fact that the Illinois Senator’s campaign has had consistent difficulty attracting rural voters; especially in key battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Politico reported Wednesday that nearly half of the registered Democrats in West Virginia would cross party lines and vote for Sen. John McCain rather than Obama in the November general election. As the country heads toward the general election, failure to achieve broad support in rural America could prove to be a serious vulnerability for the Obama campaign.
Only time will tell...
Senator Hillary Clinton’s under-performance in Indiana and North Carolina has left her in a predicament. Only one scenario remains in which her candidacy continues, and even that would just barely get her into the range where the addition of sanctioned Michigan and Florida would make a difference.
In the six remaining entities, Clinton appears to have the inside track in West Virginia (May 13th), Kentucky (May 20th) and Puerto Rico (June 1st). Barack Obama has clear leads in Oregon (May 20th), Montana and South Dakota (both June 3rd). Clinton must hold Obama to 54% in his three states AND top 60% in her victories. Both are formidable tasks and will unlikely happen. To further complicate matters for Clinton, expect to see uncommitted superdelegates now falling in line behind Obama, in order to side with the perceived winner.
It is now probable that Barack Obama will win the nomination without a detrimental floor fight at the Democratic National Convention. Simply matching his previous performances in similar states should give him the numbers he needs to clinch overall victory even if he does win only half of the remaining contests. This marathon battle finally appears to be nearing an end.
Senator Hillary Clinton won the hotly contested Indiana primary and lost to Barack Obama in North Carolina. Clinton scored 52.5% of the Hoosier State vote, but needed to get closer to 56% in order to neutralize Obama’s bigger win in the Tar Heel State. The Illinois Senator captured 56.1% of the closed Democratic primary vote, compared to Clinton’s 41.7%. She needed to be closer to 46% in North Carolina to hold her ground in the national delegate count. When adding the sanctioned states of Michigan and Florida to the mix, Clinton appears to have lost a net of six delegates as a result of last night’s voting, and now trails Obama by 16 delegates when all the states and territories are tabulated. Looking at the sanctioned delegate totals, Obama has pulled to within 217 delegates of attaining the adjusted 2,025 committed votes to claim the nomination.
Six primary entities remain. Clinton is favored next week (May 13th) in West Virginia. She also needs to score a bigger win in Kentucky on May 20th than Obama does in Oregon on the same night. Puerto Rico, with 63 delegates at stake on June 1st, then becomes Clinton’s final “must win” test. Beginning with the New Hampshire primary, every time the former First Lady has had her back up against the wall, she has responded with key wins. Aside from the Granite State, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and now Indiana are all states where a loss could have meant the end of her campaign. At the end of the primary season (Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd are the last states to vote, and both projected to give Obama sizable majorities) Clinton must be in a position where adding Florida and Michigan puts her over the top. Failing to do so means Obama could then capture the necessary outstanding superdelegates he needs to close out the nomination.
Saturday’s Democratic primary on the island of Guam did not turn out as expected. Despite Barack Obama emphasizing his island background as a way to connect with the territory’s voters, Hillary Clinton still managed to fight to a draw.
The vote was open only to US citizens who were registered as Democrats, so the total turnout, attracting just over 4,500 people, was low. Obama’s dominance in some of the other territories, 90% of the vote in the Virgin Islands and 64% among Democrats Abroad, led many to believe the he would rack up an equally significant percentage in Guam. The Illinois Senator outpolled Clinton by only seven votes, 2,264 to 2,257. Each candidate won three delegates and three others remained uncommitted.
So what are the implications of the Guam outcome for Indiana and North Carolina? Little similarity exists among these three groups of voters, so last Saturday’s result is an unlikely predictor for today’s critical Indiana and North Carolina primaries. Still, Saturday’s result does give the former First Lady and her supporters at least a psychological boost. Most polls show Clinton leading in Indiana and running ever closer to Obama in North Carolina. We will know much more later tonight.
New North Carolina and Indiana Democratic presidential polls have just been released—all completed before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s speech in Washington earlier this week. As has been the history of this campaign, pollsters continue to show conflicting results.
In Indiana, the latest must-win state for Hillary Clinton, new data again reveals different leaders. The Gauge Market Research Company, an Indiana polling firm, stakes Barack Obama to a 49-44% lead. This poll, it is important to remember, was taken April 23-24th, almost a week before Wright’s speech. In a survey released five days later, Clinton claimed a 50-42% lead. The latter poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina firm whose numbers were woeful in Pennsylvania. PPP actually predicted that Obama would win PA. Clinton, as we now know, went on to score a 55-45% Keystone State victory.
Polling variances are also present in North Carolina. Survey USA, in a study released April 29th, has Obama leading in the Tarheel State 49-44%, a number much closer than presented in previous data. Rasmussen Reports, also publicizing results on the same day, places Obama with a more comfortable 51-37% advantage.
Remember, Clinton must win Indiana and close the gap in North Carolina to continue her quest for the nomination. These polls indicate she is in range to achieve that goal.
A new poll shows Al Franken falling back in his quest to unseat Minnesota Republican Senator Norm Coleman. According to a newly-released statewide Rasmussen Reports poll, Coleman has jumped into a 50-43% lead over Franken. Though this is still an obviously close race, the trends are now solidly heading in the Senator’s direction.
The money count is also looking more favorable for Coleman. Though Franken has raised over $9.3 million for the race, he has just $3.5 million in the bank with a $182,000 debt according to the first quarter 2008 financial disclosure figures just released. Coleman has obtained a bit less, $8.7 million, but has just about double Franken’s cash-on-hand total, $6.9 million.
The Minnesota Senate race is pivotal for both parties. With Republicans poised to lose a seat in Virginia, risking the key open states of Colorado and New Mexico, and with incumbents in tough battles in New Hampshire and Alaska, Minnesota could be the state that opens the door to a Democratic super majority (60 votes).
If Coleman holds, the Republicans will be able to sustain most filibusters. If he doesn’t, the Democrats could be on their way to total control of the US Government.
Now that the Pennsylvania primary is complete and Hillary Clinton’s strong performance kept her campaign alive, attention now turns to the final nine voting entities. Polling and voter history tells us that Clinton is favored in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky, and Barack Obama has the advantage in Guam, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota.
But what about Puerto Rico? With 63 delegates at stake, the island commonwealth ranks as the fourth largest remaining delegate block, voting on June 1, 2008. North Carolina, with 134 delegates, is the largest place still on the board, followed by Indiana with 84 convention votes, and Oregon at 65.
Since this is the first meaningful mainland election that has been open to Puerto Rico voters, it is difficult to project how the two candidates will fare. Clinton has run very well among mainland Hispanic voters, but will that translate to an equally strong performance in the Caribbean? Obama has scored big victories in the other territories, but does that influence these 4 million-plus commonwealth residents?
With little voting history and unproven polling data, it may be anyone’s guess as to the eventual outcome in June. One thing is certain, however, the Puerto Rico votes will be among the most important cast in this presidential election.
The long-awaited Pennsylvania primary is occurring today and all of the late polls suggest a Hillary Clinton victory.
Three surveys were taken between April 17-20, all with sample sizes between 600 and 625 likely Democratic Keystone State primary voters. Zogby International and Mason-Dixon both forecast the race in the same range. Zogby showed Clinton ahead 48-42%, and Mason-Dixon confirmed the results, tallying 48-43%. The American Research Group detected a much larger advantage for the former First Lady, 54-41%, over Barack Obama.
With the trends heading Clinton’s way in Pennsylvania, gaining delegates become more important than her margin of victory. Pennsylvania has a total of 187 delegates; 158 of whom are pledged and 29 in the superdelegate category. At the very least, the New York Senator must get within the range where adding the two sanctioned states of Michigan and Florida puts her into the overall lead. This means gaining at least 20 net delegates in the remaining ten states and territories, of which Pennsylvania is the largest voting entity.
After today, the campaign next heads to Guam on May 3rd (9 delegates – 4 pledged/5 superdelegates) and then to North Carolina (134 delegates – 115 pledged/19 superdelegates) on May 6th. West Virginia (39 delegates – 28 pledged/11 superdelegates) follows on May 13th.
National media sources are overflowing with new polling data in anticipation of next Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary. But, with so many polls to choose from – most with widely varying results – how do you determine which is correct?
Here are some of the numbers from surveys taken just this week: the LA Times says Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 46-41%; Survey USA has the former First Lady ahead by 14 points, 56-38%; Rasmussen Reports (50-41%) and Strategic Vision (49-40%) give Clinton a nine point lead. Contradicting everyone, however, is the North Carolina research firm of Public Policy Polling which claims that Obama actually has a three point Keystone State lead, 45-42%. Thus, it’s hard to detect a clear pattern among such disparate data. Also, keep in mind that the polling has not been particularly accurate in the Democratic race this year.
Voting history and trends from similar states might be a better predictor as to what will happen in Pennsylvania on April 22nd. Located among such places as New York, New Jersey, and Ohio, all states won by Sen. Clinton, it is most conceivable that she will take Pennsylvania too, and by a healthy margin. Doing so is critical to her ability to remain competitive for the nomination. The nine post-Pennsylvania states will then take center stage and could well determine if Obama wins the nomination or a brokered national convention ensues.
Two new polls were released yesterday, one taken before Sen. Barack Obama’s disparaging remarks about Pennsylvania’s small towns and communities were uttered, and the other after the comments became known.
Comparing the results of the two surveys paints a dramatic picture. Before saying that Pennsylvania small town residents cling to their guns and religion as an expression of bitterness over job loss, Susquehanna Polling & Research, a Harrisburg, PA firm, showed Obama pulling to within three points of Sen. Hillary Clinton, 40-37%. The study was conducted from April 6-10 of 500 likely Democratic voters and has an error factor of 4.38%. In the American Research Group’s (ARG) 600-sample poll (4% error factor) conducted April 11-13, Clinton sky rockets to an overwhelming 20 point lead, 57-37%.
Clearly the latter survey is a reaction to the Obama comments, since his statement is the only major change factor occurring between the two polls. In order to obtain a more accurate damage assessment, it is wise to wait for further data since allowing more time to pass better determines voters’ true sentiments. Undoubtedly, Obama will suffer serious harm, but it is unlikely the 20-point margin will persist over a sustained period. Pennsylvania continues to be a must-win state for Sen. Clinton, and it is clear that the recent developments will help her Keystone State effort.
Recently, John McCain’s national campaign spokesman indicated that the Arizona Senator would likely accept the $84 million in federal money the government has allocated for the post-convention general election campaign. Some believe this is an admission he can’t raise the necessary dollars from supporters, but such an analysis isn’t quite accurate.
Look for the eventual Democratic nominee to accept the money, too. Though the Democrats currently have a distinct financial advantage over McCain, becoming part of the federal system won’t neutralize their resource lead. While true that both campaigns will be forced to adhere to the spending limits that are tied to taxpayer financing, such action does not limit the two national parties from raising party building and independent expenditure funds, nor does it prevent outside 527 organizations from participating.
Under the federal finance scenario, the Democrats can actually improve upon their already favorable position because liberal activists will actively support the 527 committees. Conversely, McCain, who for years has been a vocal opponent of such entities, will be forced by his own past rhetoric to denounce any supporter for contributing to the outside groups. This means that the chief beneficiary of the campaign reform that Sen McCain has so prominently advocated throughout his career will, in reality, be his presidential opponent.