On May 24, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report that estimates the costs and overall effect of H.R. 1628, the American Health Care Act. This is the third report to come from the CBO since the first version of the bill was introduced in March.

If the U.S. Senate passes the bill in its current form, the CBO estimates that it would reduce the federal deficit by $119 billion between 2017 and 2026 – $32 billion less than the original bill. 

“The largest increases in the deficit would come from repealing or modifying tax provisions in the ACA that are not directly related to health insurance coverage, such as repealing a surtax on net investment income, repealing annual fees imposed on health insurers and reducing the income threshold for the tax deduction for medical expenses,” the report said.
 
ABC supported the following provisions of the AHCA, several of which were included in ABC’s April 2016 letter to chairs of the relevant House committees on health care reform:

• Zeroes out the penalties for the employer mandate (retroactive to Jan. 1, 2016). 
• Repeals the flexible spending account (FSA) contribution limit.
• Increases the maximum contribution limit on health savings accounts (HSAs).  
• Repeals the restriction on over-the-counter medications for FSAs and HSAs.  
• Repeals the Health Insurance Tax, also known as the HIT (ABC is a member of the Stop the HIT Coalition).

According to the report, deficit reduction would partly result from $834 billion in cuts to Medicaid and $276 billion in cuts to tax credits and selected coverage provisions, which include subsidies for small-employer tax credits, tax credits for non-group insurance and Medicare.

The new CBO report also states that an estimated 23 million more people will be uninsured than would have been under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by 2026. 

However, the report does note that premiums may be lowered as a result of the newly created Patient and State Stability Fund Grants.  The program includes spending up to $117 billion to offset a lot of the cuts and tax credits within the AHCA and stabilize the insurance market overall.